Default simulation, starting from Sep 2026
If gold keeps its growth since 1971 and bitcoin keeps its last five years, the median gold price is $6,056 an ounce in 2030 and the median bitcoin price is $126,309. Today one bitcoin buys 18.6 oz of gold ($80,473 / $4,319, Sep 2026 averages).
| Year | Gold median (10th to 90th) | Bitcoin median (10th to 90th) | BTC in gold, median (10th to 90th) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2030 | $6,056 $3,961 to $9,224 | $126,309 $41,779 to $392,908 | 20.9 oz 6.9 oz to 64.5 oz |
| 2036 | $9,980 $5,148 to $19,552 | $245,904 $42,071 to $1.4M | 24.5 oz 4.2 oz to 139 oz |
| 2040 | $13,940 $6,355 to $30,922 | $379,081 $47,576 to $3M | 27.4 oz 3.4 oz to 223 oz |
Read the ranges, not the medians. Eight in ten simulated paths land inside them, and the bitcoin range in 2040 runs from $47,576 to $3M. This is what the stated assumptions imply, not a forecast.
Run the simulation with your own assumptions
Pick a preset or type your own numbers. Growth is the median yearly change. Volatility is how far a typical year swings. The page reruns 10,000 paths each time you change a field.
Long-run (default): start prices are Sep 2026 monthly averages.
| Year | Gold median | Gold 10th to 90th | Bitcoin median | Bitcoin 10th to 90th | BTC in gold (median) | Chance ratio is above today |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2030 | $6,056 | $3,961 to $9,224 | $126,309 | $41,779 to $392,908 | 20.9 oz | 56% |
| 2036 | $9,980 | $5,148 to $19,552 | $245,904 | $42,071 to $1.4M | 24.5 oz | 58% |
| 2040 | $13,940 | $6,355 to $30,922 | $379,081 | $47,576 to $3M | 27.4 oz | 59% |
The answer depends on which past you assume repeats
Each preset estimates growth and volatility from a different window of history. Over the last five years gold grew 19.5% a year at the median and bitcoin 11.9%, so that preset has gold gaining on bitcoin. Over the last ten years bitcoin grew 63.0% a year, and repeating that puts the 2040 median at $73M a coin. That is why extending a past trend is a weak way to predict either asset.
| Preset | Asset and data window | Growth | Volatility | 2030 median | 2036 median | 2040 median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long-run (default) Correlation 0.19 | Gold Aug 1971 to Sep 2026 | 8.7% | 16.5% | $6,056 | $9,980 | $13,940 |
| Bitcoin Sep 2021 to Sep 2026 | 11.9% | 43.8% | $126,309 | $245,904 | $379,081 | |
| Last 5 years repeat Correlation 0.19 | Gold Sep 2021 to Sep 2026 | 19.5% | 13.4% | $8,821 | $25,586 | $52,090 |
| Bitcoin Sep 2021 to Sep 2026 | 11.9% | 43.8% | $126,309 | $245,904 | $379,081 | |
| Last 10 years repeat Correlation 0.01 | Gold Sep 2016 to Sep 2026 | 12.5% | 12.1% | $6,941 | $14,064 | $22,540 |
| Bitcoin Sep 2016 to Sep 2026 | 63.0% | 60.7% | $571,100 | $11M | $73M |
Long-run (default): Gold since the dollar left the gold standard in August 1971; Bitcoin over its last 5 years, its most mature period. Last 5 years repeat: Both assets repeat their last 5 years of monthly returns. Last 10 years repeat: Both assets repeat their last 10 years of monthly returns.
What banks, funds and strategists say
Most bank calls only reach 2027. Long-range calls come from funds, independent strategists, and parties that hold the asset. Every row below has a date and a link, checked 2026-10-27.
Gold forecasts
| Source | Target | For | Published | Age | What they said |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | $5,400/oz (end-2026 cut to $4,650) | End of 2027 | 1 month | "holds $5,400 target for 2027" via investingLive news report. | |
| UBS Chief Investment Office | $5,400/oz | 12 months (about Aug 2027) | 2 months | "We forecast gold prices to reach USD 5,400/oz over the next 12 months." via UBS (primary). | |
| Morgan Stanley | Above $5,000/oz | 2027 | 2 months | "sees gold breaking above $5,000 an ounce in 2027" via Barchart reprint on Webull. | |
| HSBC | $5,025/oz year-end ($4,925 average) | 2027 | 3 months | "its 2027 year-end forecast was $5,025" via Reuters via Kitco. | |
| Bank of America | $4,360/oz 2026 average; $5,000 longer term | 2026 average | 3 months | "2026 average gold forecast by 14 per cent to US$4,360" via Reuters via BNN Bloomberg. | |
| J.P. Morgan | $4,500/oz average | Q4 2026 | 3 months | "$4,500/oz in the fourth quarter" via Reuters via Kitco. | |
| Incrementum, In Gold We Trust 2026 | $8,900/oz (inflationary scenario) | End of decade (2030) | 5 months | "USD 8,900 by the end of the decade" via Kitco. Its 2020 call of $4,800 by 2030 was already reached in 2026. | |
| J.P. Morgan (long-term outlook) | $8,000 to $8,500/oz | Long term, no year | 8 months | "raised its long-term gold outlook to $8,000-$8,500 per ounce" via TheStreet on Yahoo Finance. | |
| Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Research | $10,000/oz | 2030 | 1 yr | "Gold could reach $10,000 an ounce by 2030" via news report on AOL. Headline summary of his note, not a direct quote from Yardeni. |
Ages are counted to 2026-10-27, when these sources were last checked.
Bitcoin forecasts
| Source | Target | For | Published | Age | What they said |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernstein | $150,000 mid-2027; ~$300,000 2029; ~$1M end-2033 | 2027 to 2033 | 2 months | "around $1 million by the end of 2033" via The Block. | |
| Standard Chartered (Geoff Kendrick) | $500,000 | 2030 | 2 months | "maintained a long-term Bitcoin target of $500,000" via Stocktwits news. Pushed from 2028 to 2030 in December 2025. | |
| Citi | $82,000 base, $53,000 bear | 12 months (about Jul 2027) | 3 months | "sees bitcoin at $82,000 a year out, down from $112,000" via Bitcoin Magazine. | |
| J.P. Morgan (gold-volatility-adjusted value) | $266,000 theoretical | Long term, no year | 8 months | "That price target is 'unrealistic' for this year" via Yahoo Finance. The price at which bitcoin would match private gold investment, adjusted for volatility. | |
| ARK Invest, Big Ideas 2026 | ~$16T market cap, about $761,900/BTC | 2030 | 9 months | "imply a price of roughly $761,900 per BTC" via The Block. The per-coin price is The Block's math from ARK's market-cap figure. | |
| VanEck capital market assumptions | Bear $130,000 / base $2.9M / bull $53.4M | 2050 | 9 months | "leading to a price of $2.9 million per BTC by 2050" via Decrypt. | |
| Standard Chartered (Dec 2025 cut) | $150,000 end-2026; $225K 2027; $300K 2028; $400K 2029 | 2026 to 2029 | 10 months | "predicts that bitcoin will hit $150k by the end of 2026" via news report on AOL. Half its earlier $300,000 call for 2026. | |
| Michael Saylor, Strategy | $21 million | 2046 | 1 yr 4 mo | "I think we're going to be $21 million in 21 years." via Cointelegraph. Saylor's company holds bitcoin, so this is an interested party. | |
| ARK Invest (April 2025 update) | Bear $500,000 / base $1.2M / bull $2.4M | End of 2030 | 1 yr 6 mo | "were also bumped up to $500,000 and $1.2 million" via Cointelegraph. |
Ages are counted to 2026-10-27, when these sources were last checked.
Several near-term bitcoin targets sit far above the price. Bitcoin was about $80,000 on 25 Oct 2026 (Coin Metrics). Standard Chartered's earlier target was $150,000 for 2026, and Bernstein's $150,000 by mid-2027 is 1.9 times that price. Citi's July 2026 call was a cut, from $112,000 to $82,000.
Against the default simulation, ARK's $761,900 for 2030 is above the 90th percentile ($392,908). Incrementum's $8,900 gold target for 2030 is between the median and the 90th percentile. 3 of the 3 long-range bitcoin targets below sit above the 90th percentile, so they assume much faster growth than bitcoin's last five years.
| Forecast | Target | Simulation band that year | Where it lands |
|---|---|---|---|
| Incrementum, In Gold We Trust 2026 2026-05-21 | $8,900 in 2030 | $6,056 median $3,961 to $9,224 | between the median and the 90th percentile |
| Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Research 2025-10-06 | $10,000 in 2030 | $6,056 median $3,961 to $9,224 | above the 90th percentile |
| ARK Invest, Big Ideas 2026 2026-01-21 | $761,900 in 2030 | $126,309 median $41,779 to $392,908 | above the 90th percentile |
| Standard Chartered (Geoff Kendrick) 2026-08-23 | $500,000 in 2030 | $126,309 median $41,779 to $392,908 | above the 90th percentile |
| Bernstein 2026-08-26 | $1M in 2033 | $176,620 median $40,499 to $762,981 | above the 90th percentile |
Bitcoin priced in ounces of gold
The ratio removes the dollar from the question. Today one bitcoin buys 18.6 oz. If the ratio rises, bitcoin has beaten gold; if it falls, gold has beaten bitcoin, whatever happened to the dollar.
| Year | 10th percentile | Median | 90th percentile | Chance above 18.6 oz |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2030 | 6.9 oz | 20.9 oz | 64.5 oz | 56% |
| 2036 | 4.2 oz | 24.5 oz | 139 oz | 58% |
| 2040 | 3.4 oz | 27.4 oz | 223 oz | 59% |
In the default run bitcoin beats gold in 59% of paths by 2040, close to a coin flip. For bitcoin's total value to pass gold's, one coin has to buy about 337 oz (219,891 tonnes of above-ground gold over 21 million coins). The default run puts the chance of that by 2040 at under 10%. Check today's number with the Bitcoin gold ratio calculator, or read how the bitcoin to gold ratio has moved.
What has to be true
For gold to end higher
Central banks keep buying gold for reserves. Real interest rates fall, which lowers the cost of holding a metal that pays nothing. Worry about government debt and currency debasement keeps investors buying.
For gold to end lower
Real rates rise and stay high. Central-bank buying slows. Investors sell after a long run. It has happened: monthly average gold fell 62% from Jan 1980 to Jul 1999.
For bitcoin to end higher
Demand from spot ETFs and company treasuries keeps growing. Rules in large markets get clearer and allow more institutions to hold it. Bitcoin takes share from gold as a store of value.
For bitcoin to end lower
Drawdowns of 70% or more have happened repeatedly. On monthly averages, bitcoin fell 85% from Jun 2011 to Nov 2011, 76% from Dec 2017 to Feb 2019, 72% from Nov 2021 to Dec 2022. Stricter regulation, a security failure, or a competing asset could each start the next one.
How the simulation works
The model is correlated geometric Brownian motion in yearly steps from 2026 to 2040. It runs 10,000 paths with a fixed seed (2026), so the same inputs always give the same numbers. Growth and volatility come from monthly log returns of monthly average prices over each preset's window. The correlation links gold's and bitcoin's yearly moves.
Gold prices are the World Bank Pink Sheet monthly averages via datahub, Jan 1960 to Sep 2026. Bitcoin prices are Coin Metrics Community API daily prices averaged by month, Jul 2010 to Sep 2026.
Limits. Geometric Brownian motion has no fat tails, no regime changes and no mean reversion, so it understates crashes and manias. Monthly averages smooth out volatility. The start prices are Sep 2026 monthly averages; edit them to today's price. Live prices are around $80,000 for bitcoin (Coin Metrics, 25 Oct 2026) and about $4,120 an ounce for gold (Kitco quote on 20 Oct 2026).
Not financial advice
Forecasts are often wrong, in both directions. Incrementum's 2020 target of $4,800 gold by 2030 was reached in 2026, four years early. Bank targets get revised within months: Goldman Sachs cut its end-2026 gold forecast to $4,650 in September 2026, and raised its end-2026 copper forecast to $14,700 a ton in October 2026 after seeing $10,000 to $11,000 a year earlier. Citi cut its bitcoin target from $112,000 to $82,000 in July 2026. Use these numbers to size the range of outcomes, not to time a trade.
Common questions
What will gold be worth in 2030?
Nobody knows. In this page's default simulation the median gold price in 2030 is $6,056 an ounce, with 8 in 10 paths in the range $3,961 to $9,224. Published calls range from bank targets near $5,000 for 2027 to Incrementum's $8,900 and Ed Yardeni's $10,000 for 2030.
What will bitcoin be worth in 2030?
The default simulation's median for 2030 is $126,309, with 8 in 10 paths in the range $41,779 to $392,908. Long-range calls are much higher: Standard Chartered says $500,000 and ARK Invest's figures imply about $761,900. Citi's 12-month base case, cut in July 2026, is $82,000.
Will bitcoin overtake gold?
In total market value, bitcoin passes gold when one coin buys about 337 oz of gold (219,891 tonnes of above-ground gold spread over 21 million coins). Today one bitcoin buys 18.6 oz. In the default simulation the chance of reaching 337 oz by 2040 is under 10%.
How many ounces of gold will one bitcoin buy in 2036?
In the default simulation the median is 24.5 oz, against 18.6 oz today, with 8 in 10 paths in the range 4.2 oz to 139 oz. The ratio ends above today's level in 58% of paths.
Is this simulation a prediction?
No. It shows what follows if gold and bitcoin keep a stated growth rate and volatility. Change the assumptions and the answer changes: repeat the last 10 years and the 2040 bitcoin median becomes $73M.
Why do the forecasts disagree so much?
They answer different questions over different horizons. Most bank targets cover 12 to 18 months. Long-range numbers come from funds, independent strategists and companies that hold the asset, and each assumes a different share of savings moving into gold or bitcoin.