Gold and copper prices
World Bank Pink Sheet, updated October 02, 2026. LME copper traded at $14,391 a tonne on 20 Oct 2026 (Reuters).
Which metal is the AI trade?
Copper. AI needs electricity, and electricity needs copper wire, transformers and cooling. Gold barely touches AI: technology used 80 tonnes of gold in Q2 2026, about 6% of demand, according to the World Gold Council. Gold's price is driven by central banks, interest rates and fear.
Over the last year both rose: copper +45% and gold +18%. Over five years gold did much better (+143% against +55%). The AI story is real for copper demand, but it has not made copper the better performer over most periods.
Price change to Sep 2026
| Period | Copper | Gold | Copper per oz of gold then |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year (from Sep 2025) | +45% | +18% | 367 kg |
| 5 years (from Sep 2021) | +55% | +143% | 190 kg |
| 10 years (from Sep 2016) | +207% | +225% | 281 kg |
| 20 years (from Sep 2006) | +90% | +622% | 79 kg |
Gold/copper ratio since 1970
Two ways to read the ratio. Kilograms of copper one ounce of gold buys is the plain one. The copper-to-gold ratio (copper price per pound divided by gold price per ounce, shown x1,000) is the version market analysts quote. When it falls, gold is gaining on copper.
| Month | Copper ($/t) | Gold ($/oz) | Copper per oz gold | Copper/gold x1,000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1970 | $1,046 | $37.00 | 35 kg | 12.82 |
| Dec 1980 | $1,879 | $538 | 286 kg | 1.58 |
| Dec 1990 | $2,485 | $377 | 152 kg | 2.99 |
| Dec 2000 | $1,851 | $271 | 146 kg | 3.10 |
| Dec 2010 | $9,147 | $1,391 | 152 kg | 2.98 |
| Dec 2020 | $7,772 | $1,858 | 239 kg | 1.90 |
| Dec 2024 | $8,916 | $2,648 | 297 kg | 1.53 |
| Dec 2025 | $11,785 | $4,309 | 366 kg | 1.24 |
| Sep 2026 | $14,474 | $4,319 | 298 kg | 1.52 |
Monthly averages in nominal U.S. dollars. Since 1971 an ounce of gold has bought between 31 kg (Apr 1971) and 388 kg (Feb 2026) of copper.
How much copper AI and the grid need
- S&P Global (8 Jan 2026) projects copper demand rising to 42 million tonnes by 2040, a 50% increase, with production peaking at 33 million tonnes in 2030 and a 10 million tonne shortfall by 2040. It expects installed data-center capacity of about 550 gigawatts by 2040. Source
- Trafigura (8 Apr 2024) said copper demand from AI and data centers "could add up to one million metric tons by 2030". Source
For scale, using those figures: today's copper demand is about 28 million tonnes a year (42 million divided by 1.5), worth about $405 billion at Sep 2026 prices. Gold supply was 5,002 tonnes in 2025 (World Gold Council), worth about $695 billion at Sep 2026 prices. These totals are our arithmetic, not a source's figure.
Why gold rose without an AI story
Central banks added a net 289 tonnes of gold to reserves in Q2 2026, up 62% from a year earlier, per the World Gold Council. Mine output was 3,672 tonnes in 2025, up about 1%. Gold's demand comes from reserves, investment and jewelry, so it can rise in a slowdown that hurts copper.
That is the main practical difference. Copper is a bet that the build-out happens and supply stays short. Gold is closer to insurance against things going wrong.
Copper price forecasts
Bank copper calls moved up fast as the AI story spread: Goldman Sachs went from $10,000 to $11,000 for 2026/27 (Oct 2025) to $14,700 for end-2026 (Oct 2026). For gold forecasts, see gold price prediction 2030.
| Source | Target | For | Published | Age | What they said |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | $14,700/t end-2026; $15,400/t 2027 average | 2026 to 2027 | under 1 month | "raised its end-2026 copper price forecast to $14,700 a ton" via Reuters report on Capital.com. A year earlier (Oct 2025) Goldman saw $10,000 to $11,000 for 2026/27. | |
| Bank of America | $12,000/t long term | Long term | under 1 month | "long-term copper price forecast by 20% to $12,000 per ton" via Hellenic Shipping News. | |
| UBS | $15,000/t | End of March 2027 | 8 months | "reach $15,000 per metric ton by the end of March 2027" via SMM news. |
Ages are counted to 2026-10-27, when these sources were last checked.
Not financial advice
Demand projections and price targets are often revised, sometimes within months. This page compares public data and forecasts; it is not a recommendation to buy either metal.
Common questions
Is copper a better AI investment than gold?
They do different jobs. Copper is a direct input to data centers, power grids and EVs, so its price follows building activity and supply problems. Gold has almost no AI exposure: technology used about 80 tonnes in Q2 2026, about 6% of demand. Gold moves on interest rates, central-bank buying and fear.
How much copper does AI need?
Trafigura said in April 2024 that AI and data centers could add up to 1 million tonnes of copper demand by 2030. S&P Global's January 2026 study projects total copper demand of 42 million tonnes by 2040, a 50% rise, with a 10 million tonne shortfall.
How many kilograms of copper does an ounce of gold buy?
About 298 kg in Sep 2026, using World Bank monthly averages. Since 1971 it has ranged from 31 kg (Apr 1971) to 388 kg (Feb 2026).
What is the copper to gold ratio?
The copper price per pound divided by the gold price per ounce. Copper tracks industrial demand and gold tracks caution, so a falling ratio means gold is gaining on copper. Many analysts watch it as a rough growth versus fear gauge.
What do banks forecast for copper?
Goldman Sachs raised its end-2026 forecast to $14,700 a tonne in October 2026, UBS sees $15,000 by March 2027, and Bank of America lifted its long-term forecast to $12,000. Goldman's call a year earlier was $10,000 to $11,000.